Investment Archive

In the Investment Analysis page of this website, I included the following personal adage:

 

Owning a concentrated portfolio without doing the requisite research is suicidal;
don't own what you don't thoroughly understand.

 

The above is more than an aphorism - I would consider it an immutable axiom of investing.  Prices are established in securities markets by the purchases and sales of the participants.  This arena is dynamic because trades are driven by differing, constantly fluctuating points of view.  The analysis included herein constitutes but one viewpoint.  The intelligent investor will never let herself forget that.

 

Research is uploaded to the website as it reaches the level of completion necessary to be informative.  This is not to say the work posted is ever effectively "complete"; in a context of constantly changing circumstances, no research ever is (excluding, naturally, companies that have been acquired, etc.).  As the disclaimer below makes clear, the reader is forewarned to consider all research herein as simply information to be considered, not investment advice.

 

Analysis inevitably lags real-time developments, and my investment decisions will not necessarily reflect what might be interpreted as the bias of the research as presented.  Opportunities can lapse,  go stale, or reverse with the ebb and flow of business or market conditions.  And despite the effort that goes into any investment analysis, there may be errors of interpretation, judgment, transcription of data, formulae, etc.  If all humans are inherently fallible, so too is all analysis.  Whatever the etymology might imply, the fact that someone authors something doesn't make them an authority.

 

The subject of each investment synopsis is naturally indicated by its title.  Each synopsis is accompanied, if available, by the SEC filings, which in turn contain hyperlinks that direct the reader to the indicated information.  The reader will notice that the materials accompanying the analysis frequently feature editorial comments, questions, highlighting, etc.  Some of these markings will be referred to directly in the analysis, while others are simply points I paused to ponder in the course of my research.

 

The reader is strongly advised to view these and all investment opportunities - past, present and future - with the appropriate skepticism.  As with your own analysis, try to think about what's absent rather than evident.  It's that mindset in particular that helps prevent losses and paves the way to profits.

 

 


 

A Word of Advice: Although the Analyses below are quite brief, the Filings are enormous Word documents; some exceed 20,000 pages and/or 250 MB.  Accordingly, do not attempt to download them unless your computer system has adequate processing and memory capacity.  Also, do not begin to navigate the Filings until they have fully loaded onto your system.

 

Avon / AVP (2015)

Analysis: "Ding Dong, Avon Shares Calling?"

Filings:    AVP Filings

 

QLogic / QLGC (2013)

Analysis: "Big Profits in Network Plumbing"

Filings:    QLGC Filings

 

Emulex / ELX (2013)

Analysis: "Profitably Late to the Party"

Filings:    ELX Filings

 

Western Union / WU (2012)

Analysis: "WU: Misunderstood, But Still Money Good"

Filings:    WU Filings

 

Lee Enterprises / LEE (2012)

Analysis: "LEE: Ugly and Under the Radar"

Filings:    LEE Filings

 

Johnson Outdoors / JOUT (2012)

Analysis: "JOUT: The Benefits of Brand Dominance"

Filings:    JOUT Filings

 

Movado / MOV (2012)

Analysis: "MOV: The Luxury of Time"

Filings:    MOV Filings

 

St. Joe / JOE (2011)

Analysis: "JOE: Patron Saint of the Panhandle"

Filings:    JOE Filings

 

Pharmaceutical Product Development / PPDI (2011)

Analysis: "PPDI: Profiting from the Biotech Bottleneck"

Filings:    PPDI Filings

 

SL industries / SLI (2010)

Analysis: "SLI: Value on the SLI"

Filings:    SLI Filings

 

3Com / COMS (2010)

Analysis: "COMS: Buyer Be Where?"

Filings:    COMS Filings

 

Specialty Underwriters' Alliance / SUAI (2009)

Analysis: "SUAI: Small is Beautiful"

Filings:    SUAI Filings

 

Audible, Inc. / ADBL (2007)

Analysis: "ADBL: Heard But Not Seen"

Filings:    ADBL Filings

 

United Defense Industries / UDI (2005)

Analysis: "UDI: The Fog of War Funding"

Filings:    UDI Filings

 

FlightSafety International / UNC, Inc. / Greenwich Air Services (1999)

Analysis: "Stumbling Over the Obvious: Investment Opportunities in Aviation Services"