In the Investment
page of this website, I included the following personal adage:
Owning a concentrated portfolio without doing the requisite research is suicidal;
don't own what you don't thoroughly understand.
The above is more than an aphorism - I would consider it an immutable axiom
of investing. Prices are established in securities markets by the purchases
and sales of the participants. This arena is dynamic because trades are
driven by differing, constantly fluctuating points of view. The analysis
included herein constitutes but one viewpoint. The intelligent investor
will never let herself forget that.
Research is uploaded to the website as it reaches the level of completion
necessary to be informative. This is not to say the work posted is ever
effectively "complete"; in a context of constantly changing circumstances,
no research ever is (excluding, naturally, companies that have been
acquired, etc.). As the disclaimer below makes clear, the reader is
forewarned to consider all research herein as simply information to be
considered, not investment advice.
Analysis inevitably lags real-time
developments, and my investment decisions will not necessarily reflect what
might be interpreted as the bias of the research as presented.
Opportunities can lapse, go stale, or reverse with the ebb and flow of
business or market conditions. And despite the effort that goes into any
investment analysis, there may be errors of interpretation, judgment,
transcription of data, formulae, etc. If all humans are inherently
fallible, so too is all analysis. Whatever the etymology might imply,
the fact that someone authors something doesn't make them an
The subject of each investment synopsis is naturally indicated by its title.
Each synopsis is accompanied, if available, by the SEC filings, which in
turn contain hyperlinks that direct the
reader to the indicated information. The reader will notice that the
materials accompanying the analysis frequently feature editorial comments,
questions, highlighting, etc. Some of these markings will be referred to
directly in the analysis, while others are simply points I paused to ponder
course of my research.
The reader is strongly advised to view these and all investment opportunities - past, present and future - with the appropriate skepticism. As with your own analysis,
try to think about what's absent rather than
evident. It's that mindset in particular that helps prevent losses and paves the way to profits.
A Word of Advice:
Although the Analyses below are quite brief, the Filings are enormous
Word documents; some exceed 20,000 pages and/or 250 MB.
Accordingly, do not attempt to download them unless your computer
system has adequate processing and memory capacity. Also, do not
begin to navigate the Filings until they have fully loaded onto your
"Ding Dong, Avon Shares
"Big Profits in Network
/ ELX (2013)
"Profitably Late to the Party"
Union / WU (2012)
"WU: Misunderstood, But Still
Enterprises / LEE (2012)
"LEE: Ugly and Under the Radar"
"JOUT: The Benefits of Brand
"MOV: The Luxury of Time"
St. Joe /
"JOE: Patron Saint of the Panhandle"
Pharmaceutical Product Development / PPDI (2011)
"PPDI: Profiting from the Biotech
industries / SLI (2010)
"SLI: Value on the SLI"
"COMS: Buyer Be Where?"
Underwriters' Alliance / SUAI (2009)
"SUAI: Small is Beautiful"
Inc. / ADBL (2007)
"ADBL: Heard But Not Seen"
Defense Industries / UDI (2005)
"UDI: The Fog of War Funding"
FlightSafety International / UNC, Inc. / Greenwich Air Services (1999)
"Stumbling Over the
Obvious: Investment Opportunities in Aviation Services"